[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N36W TO 13N42W TO
8N47W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE ARE BEING
STRETCHED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 9N41W
11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LARGE
SWATH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 6N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 21N IN THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS BELIZE INTO WESTERN
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 7N25W 7N36W 6N50W 6N56W. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS FROM
3N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 10 TO 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N46W 10N52W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N93W 26N92W AND
FINALLY THROUGH 32N84W. A WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1005 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED EVEN MORE. ONE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE LOW CENTER...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ARE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...
THAT IS AIDING THIS PRECIPITATION.
1970

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSLA...THROUGH
EL SALVADOR AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH LITTLE TO
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK BASED ON THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS OF THE MAP. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTER OF THE AREA...NOW MOVING WESTWARD AND CURRENTLY IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 9N58W
JUST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CENTERS IS BEING
CAUSED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE-SCALE WIND REGIMES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W 25N77W NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO ITS BASE NEAR 25N69W...AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS NORTH OF THE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N15W TO 21N20W.

$$
MT




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