[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED BUT
THE CONVECTION IS TO THE W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM 12N35W TO
19N28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. VERY
LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS BECOMING LESS THAN DEFINED
THAN 6 HOURS AGO AS THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 19N BETWEEN 83W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N24W 9N45W 9N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 24W-34W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 4N28W TO 5N38W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL US COVERING THE W
GULF WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS E TEXAS AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 21N94W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST OVER THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE E CAROLINAS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N GULF IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS TO THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
22N94W THEN NE ALONG 27N91W TO 30N87W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W ALONG 25N93W TO 28N91W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 15N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 72W-83W. LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 63W-72W WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY N OF 15N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
FROM 64W-68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
31N71W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 23N81W TO THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N68W ALONG 26N74W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 24N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 21N FROM 24N40W AND N OF 15N FROM 40W-64W. A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 22N32W ALONG 14N40W AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH
TO NEAR 12N53W. A 1019 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N21W.

$$
WALLACE



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