[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED BUT IS DISTORTED SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SEE.ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. VERY
LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N WITH A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND LOSING DEFINITION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N35W 10N55W 9N63W.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-20N BETWEEN 25W-34W AND FROM
3N-13N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N94W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE
E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR
23N83W ALONG 27N86W TO 28N90W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W ATLC EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 22N94W THEN NE TO NEAR 29N87W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM OF
LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO 28N90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 14N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 69W-80W. LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 69W TO JUST W OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
30N73W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W AND EXTENDS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE
REGION EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W W
ALONG 31N55W TO 31N65W WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF A LINE
FROM 28N68W TO BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N78W. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N53W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 15N FROM 30W-65W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS ACROSS THE E ATLC ALONG 18N34W AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO NEAR 13N57W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC
N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES AND A
1019 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N22W.

$$
WALLACE




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