[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN
THE CLOUD FIELD.  HOWEVER...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS N OF THE ITCZ ARE SHEARING MUCH OF THE
CLOUDINESS TO THE E OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 3N-18N BETWEEN
25W-37W.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 13N.  CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO STRONG
UPPER NELY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
83W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N20W 9N30W 10N50W 9N61W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 12W-15W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 39W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  A 1006
MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N92W
27N88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
87W-91W.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 94W-96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W PRODUCING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION... ELY SURFACE FLOW AND NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CUBA
PRODUCED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N73W.  UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 63W-66W.  EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO DRIFT W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 31N60W 27N70W 24N77W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 37N22W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 27N30W 25N50W.  THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E AND CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE MODERATE TRADES
PERSIST IN THE TROPICS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W.  A VERY LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
24N50W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-70W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF
30W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF
20N AND E OF 30W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W AFRICA NEAR
8N10W.  THIS FLOW IS PREVENTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA




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