[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED BUT
IS BECOMING DISTORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 47W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 19N WITH A 1006 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL CENTER ARE CLEARLY OBSERVED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE S OF
17N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N21W 9N40W 10N63W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 32W-39W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 89W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE S GULF PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 21N87W
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N80W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N E OF 89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W ALONG
23N88W TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HOWEVER...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS IS DRAWING MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TO OVER E TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED  SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN N OF 26N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1006 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN JUST N
OF GUATEMALA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE OVER THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS ALONG
THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W AND
S OF 14N FROM 75W-79W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N71W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N OVER HISPANIOLA INTO
THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM 70W TO
THE E FLORIDA COAST COVERING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH DRY
STABLE AIR N OF 25N W OF 74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE
REGION EXTENDING AN STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH
32N58W ALONG 27N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
73W-78W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125
NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N75W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 22N70W ENHANCING ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 27N51W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 33W-63W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC EXTENDS S TO TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS E OF 20W WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF S
PORTUGAL. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 21N33W
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO NEAR 21N60W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 60W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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