[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150455
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
WITH CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
24W-28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 19N WITH A 1006 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT AS
CLEARLY DEFINED AS A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N19W 9N29W 7N36W 10N54W
10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 24W-37W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 12W-23W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 89W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE S GULF PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR HAVANA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 87W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE GULF
N OF 24N AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W. HOWEVER...A STRONG
DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO
OVER E TEXAS GENERATING  SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N95W TO OVER TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND
CORPUS CHRISTI. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1006 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR N BELIZE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE N COAST
OF W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH IS W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 20N85W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS CUBA NEAR
21N75W INTO THE W ATLC AND W ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR
14N69W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
INTO THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 70W TO
THE E FLORIDA COAST COVERING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH DRY
STABLE AIR N OF 24N W OF 74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE
REGION EXTENDING AN STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH
32N58W ALONG 28N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/200 NM S
OF THE FRONT W OF 70W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N75W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO
24N69W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N51W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 17N FROM 33W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC
EXTENDS S TO TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 26W WITH THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF S PORTUGAL. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
E ATLC NEAR 20N36W AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO NEAR
23N62W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
60W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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