[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EASILY OBSERVABLE IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 17N BETWEEN
20W AND 27W...INCLUDING THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE A SLIGHT
CYCLONIC MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W...WITH
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG IT NEAR 13N. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS 1006 MB LOW
CENTER TO MOVE CLOSE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE PATH CARVED OUT BY HURRICANE
FELIX OF THIS YEAR.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 9N25W 9N28W 8N44W 9N55W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W
AND 31W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AREA...JUST EAST OF CENTER...NEAR 29N89W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. THE 1012 MB ISOBAR CUTS THROUGH THE
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1016 MB ISOBAR ONLY
CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE 1008 MB
ISOBAR SURROUNDS THE UPPER LAN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST INLAND
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES JUST E OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W. BROAD UPPER
18N87W SURFACE LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
48 HOURS FROM NOW...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY
72 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
15N65W IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER NORTHWARD TO 21N64W...AND SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
COAST BETWEEN 60W AND 63W TO 14N INCLUDING SAINT LUCIA AND
BARBADOS. MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ALONG
THAT PART OF THE ITCZ THAT IS CLOSEST TO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W...WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG IT NEAR 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...A FEW
POSSIBLY STRONG...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS 1006 MB LOW CENTER TO MOVE CLOSE TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...
FOLLOWING THE PATH CARVED OUT BY HURRICANE FELIX OF THIS YEAR.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N87W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CUBA COAST ALONG 80W. STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N87.5W
AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 15N85W 20N77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 24N70W...CROSSING THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 77W FROM 23N TO 24N. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NORTHWEST OF 24N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
25N77W BEYOND 31N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2376W BEYOND 27N70W BEYOND
31N63W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N57W
18N60W 25N59W BEYOND 31N55W. THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS RIDGE EASILY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 15N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ALONG 24N62W 25N41W BEYOND 32N35W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N60W 23N77W
COLD FRONT. AN EVER-SO-SUBTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N30W TO 22N34W TO 13N37W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO 12N.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 4N20W 12N21W 23N24W.

$$
MT


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