[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 66W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N16W 9N35W 10N56W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
11W-16W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
42W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N14N BETWEEN 17W-25W AND FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-63W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE
UPPER LOW N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N91W TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
BROWNSVILLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 90W-96W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE FAR
SE GULF PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W. SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FT. MYERS
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF RADIUS OF 26.5N83W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1005 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE NEAR 19N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA
NEAR 19N78W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND SW TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. LOW LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E OF
BERMUDA BEYOND 32N63W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N64W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 30N66W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEVERELY
LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 26N68W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
IN THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WELL E OF BERMUDA TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 26N FROM 68W-80W AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN
60W-65W. WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N56W.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIFTEEN IS ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 31N50W AND CHARACTERIZED AS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE S COAST OF PORTUGAL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST
CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 17N40W. A
WEAKENING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS CENTERED JUST S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N17W BUT DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR IT IS NOT
ABLE TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE





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