[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 49.1W AT
12/1500 UTC MOVING E AT 2 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 49W-51W.
AN UPPER LOW IS VERY NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER AT 29N50W THUS
LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT TOMORROW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N25W 10N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 15W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
61W-63W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT NE FLOW.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N AND E OF 93W.  THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 27N80W TO 28N82W MOVING E.  NO SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION ARE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
N OF 20N PRODUCING WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A VERY
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEW 1004 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
19N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  AN OLD 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM
THE TWO LOWS  TO CENTRAL CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEYOND 22N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND
JAMAICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 74W-81W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N74W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE FEATURES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W
26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  FURTHER E
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
W CUBA ALONG 27N70W 21N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 64W-70W.  A 1011 MB
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N41W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N19W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO ABOVE
THIS SURFACE LOW AT 29N16W.  OTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE...A
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W....A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 55W-70W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W...A RIDGE N OF 10N BETWEEN
40W-55W...AND A TROUGH N OF 10N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA






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