[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 49.4W AT
12/0900 UTC MOVING E AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 46W-49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE SYSTEM
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 30N50W THUS WEAKENING THE SHEAR. LITTLE
OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SAT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-69W
INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N37W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 20W-26W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 14W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 26W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
36W-39W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 55W-58W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 22N
ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN W ATLC BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
DISSIPATING IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/REMNANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 87W-91W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS S MEXICO FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER BELIZE PRODUCING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY6 SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR THUS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1003 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER N GUATEMALA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS N BELIZE AND CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N81W INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W INCLUDING ALL OF
BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF
CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER BELIZE
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N81W THEN NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17N FROM 76W-82W INCLUDING A
PORTION OF CUBA AND ALL OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING N OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST W
OF BERMUDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N73W TO 28N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND DISSIPATES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. DUE TO DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US IS LIMITING
TO LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA E OF
BERMUDA TO BEYOND 32N62W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF
LINE FROM ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND 32N64W. A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N80W TO 29N70W AND IS BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W AND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 29N51W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR
26N54W. T.D. FIFTEEN IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N35W. A
SMALL SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N38W.

$$
WALLACE





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