[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 49.7W AT
12/0300 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 46W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROVIDE UPPER
SHEAR...THEREFORE LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SAT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 63W-68W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N28W 7N44W 10N62W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9-N12N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-40W WITH
SCATTERED CLUSTERS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
40W-62W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 21N
ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN TO W ATLC ONLY. DUE
STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME REMNANT LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
88W-93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1003 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND HAS
DRIFTED W TO N GUATEMALA GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO ACROSS N BELIZE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17N FROM 73W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HAITI...E CUBA...AND ALL OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST W
OF BERMUDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N75W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. DUE TO DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US IS LIMITING
ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO E OF BERMUDA TO BEYOND 32N62W
WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
21N75W TO NEAR 34N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W AND THE UPPER RIDGE
TO THE E. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N52W S TO NEAR 25N54W. T.D. FIFTEEN IS ALONG THE E
SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. WEAK UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR
24N48W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO 33N44W. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N35W. A SMALL SURFACE
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 16W-20W. A WEAK 1020
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W.

$$
WALLACE




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