[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 11/2100 UTC NEAR 30.1N 50.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BECAUSE STRONG SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE DEPRESSION. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W.
PRECIPITATION STILL MAY BE FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BETWEEN
47.5W AND 49W IN AN AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -67C.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE WESTERN END
OF THE ITCZ IS NEAR 12N62W.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 7N30W 9N50W 12N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A TROUGH IS ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
IS EVERYWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE SEEPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE THE GULF WATERS. A 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM
BELIZE TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND FROM 19N TO 21N IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT FROM 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N ARE CLOUD-FREE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 28N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CUBA ALONG 80W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 30N72W. THIS TROUGH IS UNDER A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
JAMAICA...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...AND FROM
EASTERN JAMAICA ACROSS THE WATERS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 22N74.5W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...FROM 23N TO 24.5N BETWEEN
69W AND 71W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N73W IN THE
BAHAMAS BEYOND 31N65W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
64W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN- TO-SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ IS NEAR 12N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N76W AND
REACHES FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A SURFACE...UNDER A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...THAT STARTS AT THE NORTHERN GUATEMALA SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...PASSES OVER CUBA NEAR 80W...AND REACHES
30N72W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N51W AT 11/2100 UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 22N49W BEYOND 33N46W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N18W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N19W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W. A COLD FRONT
IS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N34W.

$$
MT




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