[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A BROAD AREA OF SW FLOW AND WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE COMING DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N26W 7N44W 11N57W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-26W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
LARGE UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER TAMPA TO 26N88W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AT COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING S
OVER THE GULF...THERE IS ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO IS
REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER INTO THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 20N. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1006 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER BELIZE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N W OF 87W
TO INLAND OVER BELIZE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 65W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
16N83W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE JUST TO THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DUE TO
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR
26N61W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-77W. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N57W S TO 27N60W
WITH A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE E NEAR 29N54W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
49W-54W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N52W N TO BEYOND
32N47W REINFORCING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N18W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
THEN SW TO NEAR 11N38W. A SMALL SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED
N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 16W-20W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A HIGH WELL N OF
THE REGION THROUGH 32N28W SW TO A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N41W
TO NEAR 22N54W.

$$
WALLACE





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