[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE IS IN FACT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THE
LOCATION OF THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DOMINATING THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 10N55W 9N63W.  THE ITCZ
AXIS IS BETTER DEFINED TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREASED
CONVECTION.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-35W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 35W-53W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH TEXAS.  THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.  WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY
10-15 KT FROM THE NE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 91W-97W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF N OF 22N.  WLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE S GULF S OF 24N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N89W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
W OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA AT 17N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE W OF 68W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 30N54W 23N70W.  A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 28N58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OFF
THE COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 46N12W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO
30N30W 20N55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W.   A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 40W.  AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W DRIFTING SW.

$$
FORMOSA


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