[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 65W/66W S OF 18N BASED ON UPPER
AIR DATA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. VERY WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N32W 10N55W 9N63W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-50W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 37W ACROSS
THE ATLC TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE CONVECTION W OF 50W
IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SEE BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO THE N GULF OVER APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO OVER TEXAS S OF GALVESTON. DUE
TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ONLY WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FAR W GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
OVER THE S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 91W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THUS
INDUCING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N87W TO OVER
NE FLORIDA. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR
THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER N BELIZE AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN AREA S OF 21N W
OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
66W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 10N FROM 70W-84W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY N OF
15N FROM 76W-83W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 63W
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 63W-65W AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 17N E OF 64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
28N65W W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N61W TO THE OVER THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE
LOW/TROUGH E OF 70W AND S OF 24N FROM 66W-78W. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS BUILDING TO THE NW OF THE LOW/TROUGH NEAR
31N73W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
26N DRAPING A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
32N38W TO 23N55W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N45W
COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N FROM 40W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 58W-62W INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM
22N47W TO BEYOND 32N30W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO JUST N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 10N34W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N25W SW TO NEAR 20N52W COVERING
THE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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