[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100453
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N30W 9N45W 10N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 37W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 10W-37W. THE
CONVECTION W OF 46W IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SEE
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO THE N GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS S LOUISIANA
TO OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
OVER THE FAR W GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 93W
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA S OF 24N FROM 83W-93W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THUS INDUCING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N89W TO
OVER NE FLORIDA. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N BELIZE AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA FROM
W OF 83W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR BELIZE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 65W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N W OF 70W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 73W-81W. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 65W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF
17N E OF 63W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
28N68W W OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N62W THROUGH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N65W TO
JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 54W-63W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N FROM 64W
TO 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N DRAPING A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH 32N38W TO 22N55W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N AND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N48W
COVERING THE AREA S OF 25N FROM 40W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM 8N46W TO 15N61W INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM 22N45W TO BEYOND 32N30W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST OF MOROCCO JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
NEAR 11N34W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE
REGION THROUGH 32N25W SW TO NEAR 19N47W COVERING THE AREA E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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