[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THE
WAVE DEPICTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SPIKE ON THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
44W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  THIS
WAVE HAS CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 8N30W 11N60W.  BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 12W-17W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-44W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A TIGHTENING OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
NORTH CAROLINA AND A LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 90W-92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-96W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 87W-95W.  THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE
NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 87W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 27N AND W OF 95W.  NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE
SE GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD 1004 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST TODAY.  THE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF JAMAICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS N OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 71W-74W.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 28N62W 23N74W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 24N69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
60W-64W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 31N40W 22N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N18W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO
28N30W 20N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N42W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
N TO 22N50W.  ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM 22N50W TO
BEYOND 32N34W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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