[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
AS A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N86W MOVING
ERRATICALLY. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 84W TO ALONG THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS REMAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 11N TO JUST INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
57W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N29W 10N43W 9N53W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 7N38W TO 11N48W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180/225 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 11W-38W AND FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 48W-57W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
INTO THE W GULF W OF 95W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR 25N93W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 25N93W INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 19N95W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 90W THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W IS UNDER DRY
STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS THE 1004 MB LOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN ADDRESSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR BELIZE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W WITH
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
28N67W W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N61W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 24N70W TO
JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 63W-70W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 73W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N DRAPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO
31N68W AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
32N40W TO 23N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250
NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. NO SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N44W COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N FROM
36W-55W. BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS AN INDUCED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
BETWEEN 55W-60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE FROM 23N45W TO BEYOND 32N33W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N20W
THROUGH 32N25W S TO NEAR 19N40W COVERING THE AREA E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





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