[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
18N84W...ANALYZED 1003 MB AT 12Z.  THIS LOW SITS ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT RUNS ENE FROM THE LOW TOWARD CUBA NEAR 20N78W AND
WNW OF THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W.  SYNOPTIC
24-HOUR PRESSURE TENDENCIES ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT DEEPENING
SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...1 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING.  A
1130Z QUIKSCAT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
77W-88W.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO SEE SINCE EMERGING OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST AS IT HAS NOT PROTRUDED FAR N OF THE ITCZ.  THE
MIMIC TPW ANIMATION DOES SHOWS A NARROW RATHER QUICK WWD MOVING
MOISTURE BUMP PERTURBING THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE.  STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 10N50W 11N62W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS REMAINS ACTIVE.  IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
10W-20W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 25W-35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 35W-53W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TIGHTENING OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA AND A LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 88W-92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
92W-95W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.  THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER N
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 27N AND W OF 90W.  NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS OVER THE SE GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
GULF W OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SLOW MOVING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY.  FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
71W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF PANAMA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 21N85W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N76W.  A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 65W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
68W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 25N55W 23N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 62W-70W.  A SURFACE LOW IS
FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N70W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 25N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT.  A
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N42W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS N TO 22N50W.  ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM
22N50W TO BEYOND 32N34W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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