[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061825
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KT.  A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14.5N.  THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO FLARE UP
ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE WAVE/LOW FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
46W-51W.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 8N43W 13N50W 11N62W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-41W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VIRGINIA TO NE TEXAS AND THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM A 1007 MB
LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N88W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE
NE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 90W PRODUCING 20 KT ELY WINDS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS.  SHOWERS ARE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF MOVING W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N102W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 84W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 84W.  EXPECT
SHOWERS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE W OVER THE S GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1007 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W IS THE
DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LOW HAS BEEN
STEADILY DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
DOTS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NAMELY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
84W-88W...FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 76W-83W...FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
68W-74W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N AND E OF 75W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO FURTHER DEEPEN AND MOVE W AT 10 KT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N64W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N62W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W...IN
THE GENERAL AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-73W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N40W
TO 23N55W.   SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-75W WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N52W.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W.  IN THE TROPICS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N37W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 25W-45W.

$$
FORMOSA



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