[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WAVE IS BENEATH
THE W EDGE OF A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE MASKING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N22W 5N31W 8N44W 11N52W
7N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVE...CLUSTERS OF SMALL SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 15W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE W GULF LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO COVERING THE GULF W OF 94W WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
INLAND OVER MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER LOUISIANA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATED BY
THE STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE E GULF E OF
A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A SMALL
1008 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER WITH LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTING THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N E OF GALVESTON
TEXAS TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE
AREA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W-86W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
PUSHING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO 16N. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
21N84W TO 12N76W WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
19N83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-31N E OF 78W INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W COVERING THE
AREA S OF 25N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-74W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N67W
TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-25N
BETWEEN 60W-70W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER
THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-77W
INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N54W ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW HAS DISSIPATED
WITH AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 18N44W TO
27N51W AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 40W-53W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 15W-35W
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER MADEIRA
ISLAND ALONG 25N25W TO 25N34W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 27N45W TO 23N55W. BROAD E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W WITH THE AXIS ALONG
12W/13N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W/46W.
OTHERWISE THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net