[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN
IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND
47W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W 8N20W 8N30W 9N40W 10N45W 9N51W
8N63W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N EAST
OF 60W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N99W IN EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. A SEPARATE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N86W BEYOND 31N84W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO CREATES A COL POINT SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NON-TROPICAL 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N92W. ONE BURST OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N89.5W.
ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. RESIDENTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT
OF THE DEVELOPING 24N68W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD
SENDING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST
OF 70W IS DUE TO AN ALREADY-EXISTING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 20N80W. THIS IS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAD SPENT
AT LEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IS ALONG 81W/82W
FROM 17N TO 21N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OR ON TOP OF
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W THAT HAD BEEN
COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE LAST
2 TO 3 DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA
NEAR 24N68W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...TOUCHING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO WEST OF THE
CENTER. PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
24N68W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 61W AND 66W...AND IN NORTHERN HAITI. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM PUERTO RICO AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 20N/21N. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. THE
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N53W IS THE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OF MELISSA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE 15N45W 34N40W RIDGE AND THE 24N54W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N30W TO
25N38W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 25N38W AND CONTINUING TO
26N44W AND 27N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15N45W 22N43W
27N43W TO 34N40W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 48W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND IT PASSES OVER THE TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT



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