[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 9N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN
IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 56W/57W
AT 04/1800 UTC WAS OMITTED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 05/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 8N22W 7N30W 9N42W 10N50W 10N54W 8N64W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W.
A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N89W BEYOND
31N86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO CREATES A COL POINT
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND INLAND FROM 26N TO 29N.
SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WEAKENING
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
RESIDENTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT
OF THE DEVELOPING 25N67W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD
SENDING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST
OF 70W IS DUE TO AN ALREADY-EXISTING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 20N80W. THIS IS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAD SPENT
AT LEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND
80W...AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...FROM CUBA TO
JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N80W TO 20N81W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W THAT HAD BEEN
COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE LAST
2 TO 3 DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA
NEAR 25N67W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...TOUCHING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N BETWEEN 69W
AND 74W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM 23N
TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. THE 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N55W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OF MELISSA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24.5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND
53W. THE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE 15N45W 34N40W RIDGE AND THE
24N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS... PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W
TO 26N30W TO 26N35W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 26N35W AND
CONTINUING TO 26N44W AND 27N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
15N45W 22N43W 27N43W TO 34N40W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
46W/47W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT PASSES OVER THE TOP OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT




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