[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021646
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N18W 7N25W 10N42W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 34W-43W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-35W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W COVERING THE GULF
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 24N82W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LEADING INTO THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
83W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF S OF 29N W OF 87W WITH SOME
CLEARING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS S OF 26N
BETWEEN 88W-96W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
A LINE FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N77W N ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI COVERING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS W
CUBA JUST W OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO NEAR 20N85W WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N79W TO OVER CUBA
NEAR 22N78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120
NM OF 72W FROM OVER NW VENEZUELA TO OVER HISPANIOLA. LOW LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE CREATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N FROM 75W-83W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W. A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 31N TO OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD.
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM
31N78W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE W COAST NEAR 29N83W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE/HAITI INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 33N70W WITH ENOUGH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
LARGE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 65W-77W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N34W SW
THROUGH 24N50W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N58W AND COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 52W-59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N
OF 24N E OF 24W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W
UPPER RIDGE EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 14W/15N. THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA ARE CENTERED BENEATH THIS
UPPER RIDGE NEAR 18N42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REFORMING AND COVERING THE AREA FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 40-44W.

$$
WALLACE




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