[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND
35W MAY BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE ALSO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS DISORGANIZED AND WITH LITTLE TO
NO NEARBY SHOWERS.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N13W IN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 9N17W TO 8N26W 7N34W 6N42W
7N47W 6N52W 9N61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND IN AN AREA FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
NEAR 29N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 24N84W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN
PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 24N84W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...IN THE BAHAMAS...AND EVEN ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND EVERYWHERE EAST OF 85W. THE SEAS WILL
BE FROM 6 TO 9 FT EVERYWHERE EAST OF 90W TONIGHT...AND TO 12 FT
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 24N84W CYCLONIC CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF WHAT USED TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHED
FROM 32N51W 8N57W TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. THE TROUGH RIGHT NOW
APPEARS TO BE WEAKER AND MUCH LESS WELL-DEFINED. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW IS EASILY APPARENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BRINGING
A BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS GO FROM THE
NICARAGUA COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
SOUTH OF HAITI TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. OTHER AREAS OF
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR
17N40W. A FEW BURSTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO
20N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 38W AND
39W. THE WIND FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 24N84W GULF OF MEXICO
CYCLONIC CENTER...BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 70W...BECOMING CYCLONIC AROUND WHAT REMAINS FROM
YESTERDAY'S WELL-DEFINED TROUGH. TODAY'S VERSION RUNS FROM
23N54W TO 18N59W 10N57W AND 7N55W. THE FLOW CONTINUES TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 10N47W TO 19N40W AND 27N40W. LARGE-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. A CYCLONIC CENTER MAY OR MAY NOT
BE FORMING NEAR 30N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N52W 15N55W 19N59W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 28N15W TO 24N19W
TO 22N26W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM YESTERDAY...THROUGH
32N12W TO 28N16W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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