[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP WELL IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND DERIVED
SATELLITE PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED NEAR THE WAVE...WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION GENERALLY WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...WITH DISORGANIZED AND VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 9N26W 9N43W 6N53W 10N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY S OF THE AXIS
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 210 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-43W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS THE SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE PORTION AROUND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE COAST OF WRN CUBA. A WEAK SFC LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TOWARDS THE SE GULF THROUGH
TUE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL
NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW BAY OF
CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW.
OTHERWISE THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE AND
WIDESPREAD NLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT PERSISTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION BETWEEN THE
LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SW FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE
NE FLOW OFFSHORE FLORIDA...WITH THE GRADIENT AND WINDS RELAXING
THE FURTHER W YOU GO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
QUITE A BIT OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 71W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA N OF 14N BETWEEN
71W-75W...AND ALSO OVER THE SW PORTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY ISOLATED ELSEWHERE W OF 71W.
THE SUPPORTING UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND AND UPPER HIGH OVER HAITI. BROAD SFC
TROUGHING IS ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE WEAK LOW OVER
THE NW BAHAMAS. MUCH LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE WRN CARIB OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WRN ATLC...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 66W.
THE UPPER PATTERN IS VERY DIFFLUENT OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM
HISPANIOLA TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE SUPPORTING SFC PATTERN CONSISTS
OF A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N70W
AND CONTINUING SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
25N79W. THIS LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES W TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A VERY STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT PERSIST OVER THE WRN ATLC
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH SEAS AT THE OUTER CANAVERAL BUOY 41010
RUNNING IN THE 15 FT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE
DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RELAX AND VEER THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS THE LOW NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE GULF.

THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE ATLC AREA CONSIST OF A PAIR
OF EX-TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...WHICH IS NOW A SFC TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 18N62W 23N56W. THIS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. FURTHER E...THE
REMNANTS OF MELISSA IS NOW AN EXPOSED 1012 MB LOW NEAR
17N39W...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AT THE MOMENT. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW W OF SW EUROPE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC
MODEST RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
AREA...S OF A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N36W.

$$
WILLIS


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