[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60-75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N23W TO 14N30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W OVER MEXICO INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N21W 10N37W 7N54W 10N63W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND
FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 15W-43W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH N TO NE UPPER WINDS. DRY STABLE
UPPER AIR COVERS ALL OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SE GULF WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF A LINE FROM FT. MYERS FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO E
CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS W CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST N OF BELIZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED NUMEROUS/
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM THE COLOMBIAN
COAST TO 80W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 13N FROM 71W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
16N65W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 29N75W.
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA
SW OVER THE EXTREME N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 130 NM N OF THIS BOUNDARY W OF 76W ACROSS ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS AND OVER SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W CONTINUING S ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 31N64W WITH ENOUGH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-31N
BETWEEN 67W-75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING SW THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 24N56W THEN S INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N60W. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN IN THE FORM
OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER FEATURE EXTENDING FROM
22N57W TO NEAR BARBADOS. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE
NEAR 32N14W EXTENDING TO 29N22W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR 28N30W
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE
EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 15N. THE
WESTWARD UPPER FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING THE REMNANTS OF
MELISSA CENTERED NEAR 17N37W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER.

$$
WALLACE




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