[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
12.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ.
THIS WEAK WAVE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE
TO THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 19N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS IN
MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...ARE BETWEEN 90W AND 96W
IN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 8N23W 7N29W 7N40W 6N44W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 160 NM WEST OF AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 14N. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 44W...AND FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N70W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 23N84W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 18N90W IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. STRONG
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND
BETWEEN 69W AND 75W FROM 20N TO 30N. IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF
AND ON IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 24 TO
36 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA
TO 27N75W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
23N80W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N75W TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM
THE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TO 12 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 23N84W CYCLONIC CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 32N51W 8N57W TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W
AND 76W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 9N TO 11.5N BETWEEN THE COAST
AND 77W...IN AN AREA OF SOME MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR
16N36W. A FEW BURSTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16.5N
TO 17.5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. THE WIND FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 23N84W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER...BECOMING
ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W...BECOMING
CYCLONIC AROUND THE TROUGH THAT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 8N57W
OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA...TO A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
47W/48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE 32N51W 8N57W TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED TO SOME
DEGREE AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST 5 HOURS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W WITH
SHEARING WINDS CUTTING RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
THE TROUGH ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 24N54W TO 18N58W
TO 8N57W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH 32N19W TO 28N23W TO 29N38W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N18W TO 28N29W. THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES FROM 28N29W TO 28N34W AND 29N38W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 31N16W
29N22W.

$$
MT


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