[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N
TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS.
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF WESTWARD-MOVING
MOISTURE THAT PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM 19N IN THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS IN MEXICO BETWEEN 90W
AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES...ARE BETWEEN 90W AND 96W IN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 8N23W 7N27W 8N35W 7N40W 6N43W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM WEST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 13N.

ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
7N BETWEEN 17W AND 42W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...
AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N71W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 26N83W JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COAST TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. STRONG RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W.
IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF AND ON IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N65W TO 30N70W TO 26N76W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE WEST OF 80W...AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N74W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM THE AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS COAST COASTAL MEXICO NEAR
21N98W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM
7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND TO 12 FT IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NAPLES FLORIDA CYCLONIC
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ABOUT 80 PERCENT
OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS COVERED
BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WHOSE
BASE IS NEAR 8N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM A POINT 150 TO 180 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...NORTHWARD TO THE BAHAMAS EAST OF 74W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
NEAR ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...IN AN AREA OF SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR
16N34W. A FEW BURSTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. THE FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W...TO THE TROUGH
THAT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 8N57W OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA...
TO A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 47W/48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE
IS 8N57W...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...AND FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 26W AND
45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 32N22W TO 28N28W TO 29N40W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N22W TO
28N29W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 28N29W TO 28N34W AND
29N37W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF LINE THROUGH 32N17W 30N21W 29N25W.

$$
MT




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