[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N30W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E
OF 35W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDING S OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W. A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE GULF. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE GULF S OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE ENTIRE REGION.
MODERATE/STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING
IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF
73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR
32N75W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE W
ATLC ACROSS E CUBA TO 31N74W. BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N55W COVERING THE AREA FROM 50W-70W
INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W
TO 19N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 50W-63W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N37W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E
ATLC N OF 19N E OF 25W AND NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH EITHER OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. UPPER RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE TROPICS S OF 20N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 45W-53W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 15N56W TO 7N51W. A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE NE BOUNDARY OF
THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 20W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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