[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 5N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 28W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH OF AXIS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 45W-51W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
COVERS THE SE U.S. AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE AREA
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM A 1018 MB SFC
LOW LOCATED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER ARE NOTED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. SIMILAR
CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR THE SE
COAST OF LOUISIANA. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE MAINLY WEST OF 90W. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS THIS
UPPER FEATURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF
TOMORROW...AND ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF ON SUNDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. INCREASING N WINDS ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. TYPICAL FRAGMENTS OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA. MODERATE NE
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR
32N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE TROUGH OVER THE OCEAN.
FURTHER EAST...A SFC TROUGH...REFLEXION OF A VERY BROAD MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
ALONG 30N51W 22N54W 14N56W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERING FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 42W-61W. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE
TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE W ATLC WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...
INCLUDING THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS E OF 23W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

OF NOTE...NOVEMBER THE 30TH MARKS THE END OF THE TROPICAL
SEASON. THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED
STORMS...OF WHICH SIX BECAME HURRICANES...WITH TWO OF THE
HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO
OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED DURING THE YEAR. THE NUMBERS
OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL
ACTIVITY...TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE
LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1851. NOEL...THE LAST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. NOEL BECAME
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.

$$
GR







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