[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N30W 5N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-35W AND
WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-39W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDING S OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS EAST OF 84W. ALOFT...NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF 86W. WINDS E-NE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC AND INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR
32N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N81W
AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS EXTEND
90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N48W SW TO 16N56W WITH
A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT SPANS FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W
AND 60W. A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 130 KT
EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 23W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WADDINGTON






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