[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N19W 7N27W 6N35W 6N45W
4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM
S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-27W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 32W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDING S OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E CUBA
TO N GULF COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/ALABAMA BORDER. LOW
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF
85W AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E
CUBA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH
DRY STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 70W. EMBEDDED BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 31N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO FORT MYERS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE US E COAST. UPPER TROUGH IS
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 42W-70W WITH SERIES OF
WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N50W TO 16N56W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 42W-59W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR
31N38W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF
25W AND NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS S OF 20N E
OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
TO BE 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 27W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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