[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 4N41W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N E OF 14W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
OVER A BROAD AREA FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 27W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE NW
ATLC WITH THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INLAND
ALONG THE E COAST STATES DISSIPATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
SE LOUISIANA TO TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THERE IS LITTLE PUSH OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE E/CENTRAL STATES ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E CUBA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E
CUBA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH
DRY STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF 73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 72W. UPPER TROUGH IS
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N FROM 42W-72W WITH SERIES OF
EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N48W WHILE THE REMAINDER REMAIN WEAK AND INSIGNIFICANT. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29852W TO 16N57W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 42W-56W.
SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N38W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 26W AND NO SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. UPPER
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.
A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDS
AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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