[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 5N41W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 19W-26W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26N-41W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO
JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP THE N GULF
COAST OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE N
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO E TEXAS
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W
OF 95W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CUBA E OF 84W BROUGHT IN MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM COLOMBIA JUST N OF
PANAMA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. MODERATE/
STRONG E TO NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N FROM 56W-67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W TO 30N68W. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
19N54W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N45W TO
13N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-28N BETWEEN 40W-56W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 28N24W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICS S OF 20N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET
STREAM  WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND
THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





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