[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N28W 5N40W 3N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 43W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT
WILL CLIP THE N GULF COAST OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC OVER THE
SE US AND THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO TEXAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN SW GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 93W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CUBA E OF 84W BROUGHT IN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE
AREA E OF 76W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. MODERATE/STRONG NE TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N FROM 59W-68W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N69W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 28N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 74W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
19N55W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N50W TO
12N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
17N-28N BETWEEN 42W-56W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR
29N26W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICS S OF 20N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N
BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net