[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N30W 5N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 21W-29W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
27N80W 27N83W.  NO PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  SURFACE
RIDGING IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
28N85W 24N83W WITH NO PRECIPITATION.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-97W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NE GULF
N OF 24N AND E OF 90W.  EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF
18N.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS...FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO
ELY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N82W.  THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N70W 27N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N50W 22N54W 14N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 38W-52W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N51W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA



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