[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N23W 6N45W 4N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-34W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W
AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING
OVER THE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF S OF FORT MYERS BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N90W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING
OVER THE E US WITH A SERIES OF HIGHS OVER THE INLAND AREA. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALONG THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S AND W GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO TEXAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA
CONTINUING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COASTLINE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 72W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE SAME AREA TO INLAND OVER
THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF
27N W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N72W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE
ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N60W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N56W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 16N49W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN E/W JET STREAM IS OVER
THE TROPICS WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 TO 100 KT AND
EXTENDING FROM 14N-22N E OF 54W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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