[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N21W 6N41W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-32W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W
AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING
OVER THE GULF N OF 27N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS EXTENDING TO 24N85W WHERE IT BECOMES
NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 21N93W INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
SE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING OVER THE E US
WITH A 1030 MB HIGH OVER W KENTUCKY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE N GULF
COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE S GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA CONTINUING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE NE INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE
COASTLINE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W
WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE SAME AREA TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST
MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF
28N W OF 67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER HIGH OVER W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND
32N62W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 26N55W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 11N69W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
29N38W TO 20N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N42W TO
18N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
17N-30N BETWEEN 46W-58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 35W AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN E/W JET STREAM IS OVER THE TROPICS WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE 70 TO 100 KT AND EXTENDS FROM 14N-22N E OF 53W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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