[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 5N45W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 6W-10W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-29W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 25N88W AND CONTINUES SW
AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REPORTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONTS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA...AND CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF
18N.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS...FROM
6N-15N BETWEEN 77W-85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM PUERTO
RICO TO CENTRAL CUBA DUE TO ELY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC.  MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 19N82W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N76W
AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N40W 20N42W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 30W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA





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