[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 67W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND
WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N23W 3N39W 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-26W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W
AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE
E US EXTENDING OVER THE GULF FROM NE FLORIDA TO MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF JUST E OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA EXTENDING TO 24N90W WHERE IT IS NEAR
STATIONARY INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PULL NW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1026 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CUBA EXTENDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SW OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDING A RIDGE W
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
S OF 21N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W
WITH DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING S ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING OVER
THE E US HAS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
E US. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM PALM
BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA
EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N70W ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N FROM
35W-70W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 30N51W TO 24N59W AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N40W TO 19N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM 31N35W TO
19N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A WEAK JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM 14N38W ALONG 21N25W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N E OF 35W INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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