[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS
WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLY THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY EAST
OF 33W. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 15W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN CONTINUES NW AND W TO A 1009 MB
LOW OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST 29N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
S FROM THIS LOW TO NE MEXICO AT 23N98W. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FLARED UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF
MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 93W-96W. LIGHTNING DATA IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN THIS AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER THE NE GULF...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT HAS QUICKLY MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN ENHANCING THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
LOUISIANA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
THIS EVENING WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
ACROSS FLORIDA/THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A CUT-OFF
LOW SPINNING OVER THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE
ABC ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 14N72W. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW AROUND
A HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH MON NIGHT...PARTICULARLY JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN
COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N53W...THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR
27N72W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT CROSSING
JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO A 1009 SFC LOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY DRY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SFC
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED VERY CLOSE TO THE SE COAST OF U.S. BETWEEN
NE FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC TODAY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
38W-45W. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-45W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC MAP FROM
31N40W TO 21N45W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED ON A
1038 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF AREA.
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS THE AREA.

$$
GR




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