[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140 NM SOUTH OF AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-32W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NW TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW
TO NE MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE WARM
FRONT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN ENHANCING THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ALSO JUST
EAST OF THE SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO LOUISIANA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE
SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A CUT-OFF LOW OVER MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE
ABC ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N56W...THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUNDAY TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
40W-45W. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-45W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 31N37W 24N44W 16N55W FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL TROUGH. A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED ON A 1038 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N
OF AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS THE AREA.

$$
GR




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