[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242313
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
8N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. MOISTURE IS MOVING WESTWARD
ALSO WITH BROAD SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 5N30W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...FROM
4N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W
AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N
BETWEEN 12W AND 50W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N90W
TO 25N93W TO A NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO
24N96W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N96W INTO MEXICO TO 24N99W
26N102W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N104W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER BEYOND 31N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND
91W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH ENCOMPASSES BAJA CALIFORNIA...
INTERIOR MEXICO...AND TEXAS/NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 101W AND 120W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
75W AND 80W...AND SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING ARE
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
FOR THE 24/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1012 MB ISOBAR RUNS FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL SECTION...TO THE NORTHERN
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER. THE 1016 MB ISOBAR ENTERS THE
AREA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...SKIRTS THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND EXITS THE AREA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS AND HAS BEEN
THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST THREE
TO FOUR DAYS. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N44W 18N48W
TO 13N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N40W
22N48W AND 17N52W. A TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N44W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N46W 21N37W 26N34W
BEYOND 32N33W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N45W 20N48W 17N54W...
AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N54W 15N55.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING UPPER AIR SUPPORT
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 36N52W
TO 33N55W TO 31N58W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W
TO 28N68W TO 27N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N74W
TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 26N63W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THROUGH 31N58W 28N64W 26N70W 27N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ALONG 10N41W
22N33W BEYOND 32N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 11N47W 20N38W
25N32W BEYOND 32N26W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS EAST OF 30W.

$$
MT


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