[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  WAVE
REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W.  CLUSTERS
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
10W-15W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 15W-18W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
21W-26W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 30W-44W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 24N90W.  A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES NW TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NE MEXICO AT
20N97W.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W...AND OVER SE TEXAS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 94W-97W MOVING NE.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR
THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 93W.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW
MOVE TO S LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.  A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-84W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT...THE
TRADEWINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE S OF 17N AND W OF 70W OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N65W 27N70W
26N80W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N63W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N38W 25N43W 17N52W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 44W-48W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 34W-37W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 35W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO STAY PUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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