[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150
NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-41W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 24/0900 UTC...BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N81W BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 23N93W THEN PULLING N AS A WARM FRONT TO A NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE WARM
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY BEING DRAWN
ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHICH IS UNDER BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF...W ATLC...AND
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO COVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED JUST S OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM VENEZUELA N ALONG 70W TO OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N TO THE COAST
OF HONDURAS W OF 84W AND THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 75W-79W.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF
THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-56W WITH STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO
17N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N44W TO 23N50W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 32W TO BEYOND 32N PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N40W TO BEYOND 32N37W. A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING S OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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