[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 14N MOVING W LESS THAN 10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF ITCZ AXIS E OF 44W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E US AND W
ATLC WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA N OF THE KEYS ALONG 25N82W TO 23N91W BECOMING A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
MOVING NW AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W GULF FROM 21N-27N W OF 92W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS
THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO E CUBA. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF...W ATLC...AND CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE E US AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N ALONG 72W TO OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND S OF 11N FROM 75W-80W.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NE ATLC EXTENDS THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO THE US E COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-60W WITH STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 17N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM W OF THE FRONT W OF 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N46W TO 23N50W WITH ANY ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WELL N OF THE
REGION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICS NEAR 9N36W TO BEYOND 32N32W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM 20N42W TO BEYOND 32N35W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER
THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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