[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N51W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT REALLY NEVER MADE IT
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH IN ORDER TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 23N91W
AND CONTINUING TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SEPARATED ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IT CONTINUES FROM 18N97W TO 25N104W
TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO
25N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N94.5W.
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
NEAR 18N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...AND
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
IS BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN EASTERN PANAMA ALONG 78W...AND WEAKENING ALONG 81W. OTHER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 12N75W 17N80W 21N82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS AND HAS BEEN THE
MAIN FEATURE ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST THREE
DAYS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE AREA SOUTH OF 32N.
EVERYTHING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W
29N74W BEYOND 32N70W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N46W TO
24N50W. THE DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W TO 22N54W TO 15N56W TO 10N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N40W TO 20N46W TO 15N52W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N48W 18N42W...AND WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
18N42W 24N39W BEYOND 32N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ALONG 11N42W 22N37W BEYOND
32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 9N50W 20N41W 25N32W BEYOND
32N26W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 30W.

$$
MT


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