[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON THIS LATE
SEASON LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N30W 2N51W.  CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 24N90W 18N95W.  VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 91W-95W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE NELY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE SELY 10-15 KT
S OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
STALL LATER TODAY.  ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO S TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT WITH SOME CONVECTION
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-89W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 13N AND E OF 78W.  CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA.  EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE CONFINED TO S OF 14N AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N76W
28N80W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N68W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N38W 27N40W 16N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 39W-44W.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY PUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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