[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/E PACIFIC
REGION MOVING OVER S MEXICO. ANY ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N21W 3N38W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
S OF ITCZ AXIS E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SKIRTING
THE N GULF COAST WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA N OF TAMPA ALONG 23N92W INTO S MEXICO
JUST E OF VERACRUZ. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO
TAMPA TO 26N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT WHILE OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NNW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N85W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-60W
WITH A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N38W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N41W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR
17N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W TO 25N53W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THIS SURFACE TROUGH. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 8N36W TO BEYOND 32N30W PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225
NM OF LINE FROM 14N47W ALONG 25N39W TO BEYOND 32N37W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
28N68W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC N OF 18N E
OF 35W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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